In my previous post, I introduced the concept of a ‘Risk Universe’ which I flesh out in more detail here. A Risk Universe provides a comprehensive view of the possible risks we face to aid in categorisation but also to act as a check on the scope of our risk…
Tag: risk
Unmitigated Surprise and Why Robust Risk Identification Matters
I have been rediscovering my security risk management roots recently and developing the components of a quantitative approach to security risk management. I am picking up the risk books I put down in 2008 when Cyber became the new brand for information security. At that time I became much more…
Estimating Probability
I have found that asking people to estimate the probability of a risk occurring as a percentage leads to them performing a pseudo-mathematical calculation in their head (System 2 thinking I suspect) which often ends up with a fairly high probability being estimated, especially when compared to base rates. However,…
Writing a good risk statement
I often review documents describing risks that fail to either make an impression as to the seriousness of the risks or fail to explain the cause and impact of those risks, both results leading to a less well informed risk decision by a non-specialist executive. It is vital when stating…
Don’t over think cyber risk
I have been overthinking cyber risk. I’ve been trying to build a reliable model that I could rely on to mechanism my risk assessments. I’ll continue to refine my ideas because I enjoy the intellectual challenge. However, I am of the opinion that until we have the cybersecurity equivalent of…